The plan is a dramatic change from an earlier version of the IRP that called for 11.4 GW of new renewable electricity generation from all sources.
At the end of March 2011, the South African Department of Energy (DoE) issued the latest version of its Integrated Resource Plan IRP), calling for 8.4 GW of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and 1 GW of new concentrating solar power (CSP) by 2030.
The plan is a dramatic change from an earlier version of the IRP that called for 11.4 GW of new renewable electricity generation from all sources.
"It seems that the DoE has recognized their failure to include the Upington Solar Park into the IRP II document," stated Frost and Sullivan Energy and Power Business Leader Cornelis van der Waal in comments on the IRP. "This sends out a strong signal for investors looking at solar projects to speed up their feasibility studies."
The earlier version of the IRP contained a single target for renewable generation, whereas the new "policy-adjusted" IRP has separate goals for PV, CSP and wind.
The policy-adjusted IRP calls for an additional 8.4 GW of wind power and a total of 17.8 GW of renewable generation, which would bring the nation to meeting 9% of its electricity demand from renewable sources.
However, Frost and Sullivan also notes that the National Energy Regulator of South Africa recently indicated that it is considering reducing renewable energy feed-in tariffs, which would weaken a key mechanism to reach those goals.
South Africa’s IRP process began in June 2010, and the plan has undergone a number of revisions, including modification for qualitative measures such as job creation.
Coal-fired generation currently represents 90% of the nation’s electricity generation by capacity. Even if the goals in the IRP are met for new nuclear power and renewable generation, the nation will still meet 65% of its electricity demand with coal-fired generation in 2030.
